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55bn of Italian and Spanish bonds in the wild market over the past few weeks. It has elicited strong rebuke from the German Bundesbank, especially following the ECB-induced connection rally took the pressure off Italian politicians. Italy’s 10-year yields jumped 21 bps this week to 5.27%, with this afternoon’s 397 bps a record close for 5-year Italian Credit Default Swap (CDS) prices.
Having aggressively intervened in the marketplace, the ECB now encounters the risk of market tumult if it shies away from its connection buying program. In the home and overseas, central bankers have allowed themselves to be studied hostage by (more and more desperate) markets. Come to the markets’ save and there will be no turning back, in a Bubble backdrop especially. And global central bankers will more vocally protest the state of fiscal mismanagement and “dysfunctional” markets, yet they have themselves to blame largely.
For too much time, central bankers have accommodated both reckless sovereign borrowing and highly speculative marketplaces, day of reckoning which ensures a fateful. “Activist” central banking has been the nucleus for overstating the effectiveness – and over-promising – regarding both monetary and fiscal policymaking. Markets and citizens as well got over years been conditioned to believe that enlightened policy made certain economic stability and rising asset prices. Accordingly, risk and leverage were readily embraced. These days, central bankers are trapped – the markets fully appreciate they have them trapped – and it’s going to be fascinating and unnerving to watch how this all plays out.
And as the ECB has terribly deviated from its primary principles, it does at least involve some to anchor policymaking. The Bernanke Fed is lost at sea completely. Markets will now anxiously anticipate the FOMC’s September 20/21 meeting. A divided Fed will contemplate additional stimulus measures, including more quantitative easing. You will see intense pressure to do more to aid a faltering “jobless” recovery, with the expectation that Chairman Bernanke will carry the day and ensure a backdrop sufficiently loose to support additional fiscal stimulus. Unlike the Europeans, the markets have to impose austerity on Washington yet.
And while both European and American economies have exhibited recent weakness, as opposed to European countries our feeble recovery shall continue being underpinned by lavish federal spending. This season US stocks have significantly outperformed European bourses, and there remains considerable confidence that our monetary and fiscal measures can support economic expansion and higher stock prices. As I wrote a few weeks back, it isn’t difficult for most U.S. At exactly the same time, the global economic climate comes under added stress each passing week.
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The euro again arrived under great pressure this week. The euro has been notably resilient for days gone by several weeks, but I be concerned that this has only provided an opportunity for more hedging available on the market to protect against potential euro weakness. Part of my evaluation is that huge derivative security (put options and such) has gathered that would often increase the vulnerability of the euro for an abrupt and destabilizing decline (if key technical support levels are damaged). It has been part of my thesis that the global economic climate has been especially susceptible to de-risking and de-leveraging dynamics.
I believe marketplaces have absorbed the first stage of de-risking/de-leveraging, with significant currency markets declines, surging Treasury prices, a widening of Credit spreads, a tightening up of general financial conditions and a downshift in economic activity. Importantly, this “first phase” was followed by significant currency market volatility – however, not dramatic changes in most currency values.